GBPJPY trade taken 19th Oct

Explainations on the charts.

As I type this, I have just added another position short at 147.86 with a 26 pips stop.
Looking move stop to breakeven soon, update later.

Some market direction for the week ahead

I just did a quick overview of my favourite currencies.
Will be taking reference from the USDJPY and EURGBP when I watch setups real time.
Lotsa of crazy moves in the past few weeks.
Gotta trade carefully for the week ahead because the trendiness may not continue.
We could end up with a period of range before trending again.
Must admit, I think I’ll only be trading the EURUSD, GBPUSD and GBPJPY.
The EURJPY is in a range, and slightly difficult for me to play. But I will try if the opportunity appears.

Trades taken 16th Oct

Got into 3 trades so far.
shorted the GBPJPY late last night and went to sleep.
Sold the EURUSD and bought the GBPUSD at the same time this morning. lol
GBPJPY -20pips -1R (half position size, so adjusted -0.5R)
EURUSD + 25pips +2.5R
GBPUSD +10pips +0.22R
So total +15 pips with +2.22R
Explainations on the charts.

EURUSD and GBPUSD trades taken 15th Oct

Explainations on the charts.

-15pips on the EURUSD -1R (but very small position size since it was a punt, so equates to a -0.25R und)
+47 pips on the GBPUSD +0.905R

Going to AAT for some Cashflow fun right now. I think I’m running late..again..>.<
It’s gonna be my first Cashflow game..sua ku right? lol

GBPJPY trade taken 14th Oct

Well, as mentioned this morning in my previous post, the GBPJPY was an easy trade.
Was in a hurry so only mentioned breakouts and fakes, but forgot to mention rejections..lol
Nice move on the GBPJPY immediately after the post. Too bad I missed it.
Anyway, there was a fake break today evening.
But I was leaving to catch a movie.
So I just took a short position with a decent stop before leaving.
However a quick spike stopped me out, then price made the huge fall I was anticipating.
Sux to be right but not be able to time the entry as I would have liked.
Also sucked to let eagerness to trade get to me. Missing the early move in the day probably started it.
After watching the movie, I felt even more cheated because it certainly wasn’t worth missing this trade for!! lol

Anyway, explainations on the charts.
Done for the day, really tired.

watch the GBP

GBPJPY, watch the 1.4321 level
GBPUSD, playing with the 4hr50sma
Could be breakouts or fakeouts, whichever it is, it’s a tradable event.
Gotta leave the house now, so I can’t trade them..zz

GBPUSD 2nd trade taken 13th Oct

I have no idea why I’m still awake, surf surf surf, read read read, suddenly it’s past 2am and I’ve got more articles to read than when I first started out with..lol

Anyway, I spotted the GBPUSD hitting the 4hr50sma. Observed it for a good 15mins before I decided to get in with a tight stop.
So far it has paid off, 27.5 pips,1.83R locked in.
total for today +45.5 pips, 2.83R
Explainations on the chart.
It really pays to watch the longer term moving averages. =)

GBPUSD trade taken 13th Oct

Busy day today, didn’t trade much.
Happened to be around just before the major news release in the afternoon.
Got into the trade in more or less the right direction, I set the partial close EA to take half profits at 30 pips and move my stoploss to breakeven.
I saw my stoploss get moved, so I assumed the EA had taken half profit at 30 pips.
Turns out it didn’t..zz
Apparently price just touched 30 pips momentarily, not enough for the EA to execute an order..=.=
So I got out with +18 pips just a few mins before the news release.
Since partial profit wasn’t taken, i didn’t want this trade to get stopped out at breakeven in case of a spike.
So it’s alright, still a 1R trade.
Anyway, the downside break couldn’t hold and the GBP rallied like crazy across the board after that.
The GBP has been doing weird things these past 2 days, I’m lucky not to be around much to trade, else I might have lost $$ =p
Explainations on the chart.

Words from Jim Rogers, take notes ladies and gentlemen!

I bought tix to a wealth summit asia which was held over 2 days last weekend.
However, the only speaker I wanted to hear from was Jim Rogers.
He looked extremely bored while speaking to us on stage, initially I chalked it up to his old age.
He really looked older than I tot he’d be.
Anyway, he was basically repeating what he’s been saying at every single interview he’s granted for the past couple of years.
Maybe that’s why he looked so sian while on stage =p
Anyway, I found an interview with a summary of his views.
Original article found here:
http://www.indexuniverse.com/blog/6697-jim-rogers-the-next-10-years.html?Itemid=143

Jim Rogers: The Next 10 Years

Written by Heather Bell  -  October 09, 2009 12:40 PM

I’m moving to China … possibly to live in a bunker. At least that was my inclination after listening to a presentation by Jim Rogers Thursday.

Now don’t get me wrong―Mr. Commodities wasn’t all doom and gloom. In fact, his talk was both informative and highly entertaining. But Rogers doesn’t sugarcoat things―he’s very matter-of-fact about his concerns and projections for the future. And most of them don’t bode well for the U.S.

I’ll be posting an interview with Jim Rogers on the site in the coming week, but for now, I just wanted to offer some highlights from his speech at ETF Securities’ mini-conference and the Q&A that followed.

1. The 21^st century belongs to China

According to Rogers, the 19^th century was the era of the British Empire and the 20^th century was the U.S.’ heyday. But the 21^st century is China’s (though the rest of Asia is definitely going to get a boost too).

The reasons for this are many, but some points brought up by Rogers include the following:

1. The Chinese want to live like we do;
2. They are more eager to work;
3. They are better at saving;
4. There are 1.5 billion Chinese citizens (and 3 billion people in all of Asia), and we owe them money. They are, according to Rogers, “among the best capitalists in the world.”

There will be some setbacks, of course, Rogers says, but these are opportunities. “If you see setbacks in China, you should pick up the phone and get more involved,” he advised, before adding his favorite refrain, “The best advice of any kind that I can give you is to teach your children and grandchildren Chinese.”

China’s path to world domination started with Deng Xiaoping’s capitalist programs in 1978, and there hasn’t been any looking back since. Rogers views China’s dominance as nigh-on unstoppable except for one little thing: its water problem. There are parts of the country that are running out of water, and when the water disappears, Rogers points out, so does civilization. However, the country is acting aggressively to combat the problem, and he doesn’t view it as that much of a threat.

2a. Jim Rogers is not a Ben Bernanke fan

Yep, it’s a fact. No “Team Bernanke” shirts for Jim Rogers (who said to scattered applause during the Q&A session that if he was in charge of the U.S. economy he would “abolish the Fed and resign.”).

Rogers is appalled by the government’s actions—Bernanke’s in particular. The U.S. government’s strategy calls for the debasement of the dollar, he says, calling it a “horrible policy.” While he concedes it can work in the short term, it NEVER works in the mid- or long term.

“He’s going to run those printing presses until we run out of trees, because that’s the only thing he knows,” Rogers said of Bernanke.

Add that on top of the country’s rapidly growing astronomical debt, and Rogers believes you’ve got a recipe for disaster.

2b. The U.S. dollar is screwed

Consider this a corollary to point 2a. Its status as a reserve currency is teetering on a precipice, in Rogers’ opinion, and he’s not alone. In fact, so many people are selling dollars right now that he’s sitting tight, waiting for a possible—and ultimately unsustainable—rally in order to exit the market. Of course, if it fails to rally and just drops again …

“I’ll just have to panic and sell like everyone else,” Rogers said.

3. Commodities, commodities, commodities

OK, as mentioned before, there are 3 billion people in Asia, most of whom are aspiring to play the home version of the American Dream game show. And let’s face it: American society is largely about consumption. We like stuff―we buy it, we wear it, we eat it, we flaunt it, we sometimes even bedazzle it (yeah, Google that). So that’s a lot more consumption on the global level. Rogers notes that while consumption is expected to increase exponentially, not a lot of capacity has been added in the last few decades for a lot of commodities. Meaning, not a lot of new refineries have been built, and not a lot of new resources have been discovered or excavated for a variety of commodities.

In terms of oil, Rogers cites the fact that Saudi Arabia has not seen any new oil discoveries but has consistently said for the past two decades that its reserves are at 260 billion barrels (in which time it has sold 60 billion barrels). He also points out that farmers are a rapidly disappearing species. So to sum up―that’s a lot more people competing for diminishing resources (including the all-important energy and food). Basic supply and demand theory pretty much takes it from there.

“Commodities are the second-largest asset class in the world,” Rogers noted. And they are “the best anchor” for your portfolio, he adds.

Rogers says the typical life span of a commodities bull market is 18-20 years. We’re currently in year 11 right now. Yeah, it could end tomorrow, but that whole supply and demand imperative could also extend this bull beyond its typical time frame.

During the Q&A session, though, the conversation took a darker turn. One questioner asked if the increased competition for resources might lead to war, and Rogers allowed it was a possibility, though he hoped it would not come to that. He pointed out that when a rising power clashes with an established power, the result is usually war, and said that research consistently shows that resource shortages lead to war.

So, sure, commodities shortages might start World War III, but if you invest in the commodities themselves, you might at least be in decent financial shape when the shelling stops—and I’m not being flippant at all. War drives up the costs of commodities.

4. U.S. government bonds are the next big bubble

Well, would you lend money to us? Rogers says short-term bonds are probably OK, but he advises getting out of anything with a longer maturity. He calls it “inconceivable” that anyone would lend money to the U.S. for 30 years at the going rate, and notes that the U.S. was a creditor nation as recently as 1987.

“Now the U.S. is the largest debtor nation in the history of the world,” he said.

And for bond portfolio managers, he had some very pointed advice: “Get a new job.”

5. Protect yourself

The underlying theme of Rogers’ entire speech was that the world is changing, and here are some things you should know if you want to come out the better for it (and for your family members, clients, etc., to also come out the better for it) financially. Based on Rogers’ observations, it seems recognizing that change is a key step, but so is adapting to it (see advice regarding learning Mandarin, for example).

And in Rogers’ eyes, commodities are a good way to achieve this protection. No investment is certain of course, but right now, he thinks commodities look pretty darn good.

Best Comment Of The Night

Addressing one audience member’s question, Rogers asked if the young man were an MBA. The questioner admitted to holding an MBA and was promptly told he should swap his MBA for an agriculture degree from Texas A&M.

“You should become a farmer,” Rogers said.

That’s an old line for Rogers, but he added a new wrinkle. If you’re not going to become a farmer, you should open the first Lamborghini dealership in Iowa. Because with farmers closing in on extinction just as the world needs more food, that’s probably what they’ll be driving in a few years.

GBPUSD fantastic confluence setup

Great example of confluence setting up for a perfect entry to a big move.
Explainations on the chart.