GBPJPY trades taken 7th Oct

Took 2 positions today, explainations on the charts, but I’ve put the figures here.
The triangle which I mentioned in my previous post broke to the downside.
The retracement has brought it all the way back up to the breakdown level, so I’ll be looking for more short entries.

1st position of the day
sold at 141.38 with a wide 65 pips stop
60% profit taken at 65 pips, equivalent to 39pips
20% taken at 130pips, equivalent to 26 pips
20% taken at 50 pips, equivalent to 10 pips
total +75 pips for 1.15R trade

2nd position
sold at 140.88 with a 25 pips stop
50% taken at 50 pips, 25 pips
20% taken at 100pips, 20pips
15% taken at 75pips, 11.25pips
15% taken at 0 pips
2.25R trade with + 56.25pips

So pretty good day with total of 3.4R in winnings.

GBPJPY triangle 7th Oct

Watch for this.

GBPJPY trade taken 2nd Sept

Initially I was waiting for a downward move on the EURJPY.
But after considering for a bit, I realise there was a similar move on the GBPJPY and based on the trend of the EURGBP charts, there should be a bigger downward move on the GBPJPY charts instead of the EURJPY when it breaks.
Explainations on the charts.
Sneaky Japanese made the break so early in the morning..
Entry 149.93, Stoploss 150.43
Half profit taken at 149.32
Targetting 147.50 which is the previous major swing low from the daily charts.
Stoploss not moved, will do so after price makes the first retracement and falls past the recent low made.
I won’t be around till mid afternoon though, so let’s see what happens.
Anyway even if it hits my stop now, I’d still be a few pips positive.

GBPJPY

A little triangle which formed this morning, clearer on the 5min charts.

Explainations on the chart.

I missed this long entry 1-2-3 because I was trying to include the picture for the last post..=.=

My first blog, so I’m still pretty lost and overwhelmed by trying to tie everything together.

Anyway price is already up at the 50% retracement level.

Market Exuberance on the STI

On the daily charts we can see there was a pretty little triangle pattern which made a strong break to the upside.
But do you notice the divergence with volume?
Price is rising on falling volume, this usually indicates weakness in the rally.
(refer to pic for a better idea of the triangle and price-volume divergence)
If today’s candlestick forms a doji, I’d take some profit off the table.
It’s the weekend! Take the money and spend it all!! (well ok, save some as well..)

I was expecting more of a retracement after the break before taking any long entries.
However, it seems that the market exuberance has fuelled yet another monster rally.
Instead of chasing the markets, I am more inclined to be patient and wait for a retracement.
I might miss the lows this time, but it’s perfectly fine!
As a trader, I’m looking to trade movement, be it buy low sell high, or buy high and sell higher. It still produces the same result, profits.
The only difference is in risk management, chasing the market would mean accepting 2 disadvantageous implications.
1) you’ll have a wide stop.
Unless you’re willing to take on a bigger loss, should this trade go wrong, this probably means you’ll take a smaller position size.
2) smaller risk/reward ratio
Regardlss of where you entered the market, the level of the next reasonable target resistance area remains the same.
Therefore by taking a late entry, you’re
a) lengthening your distance to your stoploss
b) shortening your distance to profit
your risk/reward ratio will become more unfavourable.
 
Btw, for the adventurous ones, during this period, you could take advantage of the volatility to do some intraday trading as well.

Be well and trade well!
Ferrowolf

triangle and volume divergence